As we proceed with our second round of Veepstakes Rankings, the most interesting thing to note is how what initially seemed like a really deep crowd of potential VPs has thinned out considerably. That's primarily a result of missteps on the part of possible running mates. Additionally, a few folks have indicated they aren't interested, although only one of them has made a Shermanesque statement that he would definitely not accept the offer and has told Obama as much.
With that in mind, Let's dive in:
THE CURRENT CREAM OF THE CROP
1) JOHN EDWARDS- (formerly #4 in the original 6/4/08 rankings) The former NC Senator is not a dream choice but a solid one. He reinforces Obama's message of change generally, and more specifically, his opposition to special interest influence. His focus on poverty and the downtrodden speaks to many low income and rural voters who might view Obama as an "elitist." His Southern roots won't hurt, even if they likely won't help Obama actually win North Carolina. His wife is an incredibly popular, sympathic figure who is also an effective advocate for national health care. She might also help with older women who supported Hillary and have yet to embrace Obama. As I mentioned in the last rankings, he wasn't a super running mate for Kerry in '04, but one senses his enthusiasm for Obama is more genuine than for Kerry and that he would be a better surrogate this time around. And from a purely optics-oriented perspective, the two men looked awfully well-matched when Edwards endorsed Obama in Michigan in May.
2) BILL RICHARDSON- (formerly # 3) As mentioned previously, the current NM Governor's resume is impeccable- former UN Ambassador, former Sec. of Energy, former Congressman. He's got foreign policy experience, executive experience and credibility as a westerner (he's a gun rights advocate). Unlike a military man running mate, he can still reinforce the national security message effectively without highlighting Obama's lack of experience in that arena. He's from a swing state and being a Hispanic westerner will also help in Colorado, Nevada and even Arizona. A bit of a DC insider, that concern is effectively mitigated by his ethnicity and recent time outside Washington. Still, he's been known to go off message, say silly things, engage in unneeded resume puffery and is rumored to be a bit of a pig when it comes to the ladies. I also remember him stumbling badly though a question about gay rights in a debate last fall- he didn't seem to understand the question being asked. Still huge electoral and policy pluses may outweigh those minuses.
3) EVAN BAYH- (formerly # 11) Ugh. The IN Senator moves up almost by default. The same blandness that makes him unobjectionable to most also makes him a pretty uninspiring choice. But from a purely strategic perspective, he makes a lot of sense. A former Governor, he has executive experience. He has some foreign policy knowledge from his Senate service. Attractive and still relatively young, he jibes with Obama's generational message. He was a big Clinton supporter, which may help heal wounds between the two camps. Plus, he's from a possible swing state. Then again, his support for Hillary didn't seem to help her much in the state, as Obama nearly stole it form her in the primary. This dullard would be a boring, safe choice. But maybe Obama feels he offers enough excitement on his own and would prefer boring and safe for the number two slot.
4) TIM KAINE- (formerly # 7) Current VA Governor lepas to the top of the Virginia Three, mainly because of Warner aand Webb's asserted lack of interest in the job. Moderate views and executive experience could help nationally, but especially in his own potential swing state. No foreign policy background though and progressives don't love him.
5) SAM NUNN- (Formerly #2) Former GA senator still regarded as a steady hand with vast foreign affairs knowledge. But he's 70, almost as old as McCain, which doesn't mesh with Obama's message of generational change. Plus, his early '90's opposition to gays in the military still rankles many progressives. Depending on one's level of idealogical purity, that can be either a good or a bad thing.
THE SECOND TIER
6) MARK WARNER- (formerly #1) This former VA Governor and current senatorial candidate topped the rankings last go-round. Nothing has changed to make him less appealing- executive experience, business experience, Southerner froma swing state. But he has indicated pretty strongly that he wants to focus on winning the his Senate race. Beyond that, he's promised his teenage daughters he wouldn't seek national office until they all graduated high school. Still, hard to imagine he'd say no if Obama asked.
7) JOE BIDEN- (new) The longtime Delaware Senator makes a huge leap from nowhere to serious contender. Highly respected for his foreign affairs knowledge and an eloquent voice for Obama's messge, he knows the world of DC intimately. That's also the problem- he screams Washington insider, which undermines Obama's change message. Additionally, Delaware isn't exactly a swing state. Finally, Biden is known for his tendency to go on and on ...and on. He' s kind of a blowhard, albeit a very smart blowhard.
8) HILLARY CLINTON (formerly # 8) The clamor to pick the NY senator has diminished significantly in recent weeks. She remains a polarizing figure who may motivate conservatives more than she helps Obama, but for all the obvious reasons (passionate supporters, image as a tough, experienced hand), she still has to be considered a real possibility.
9) CHUCK HAGEL- ((formerly #10) Outgoing Republican NE senator remains on the list because of his opposition to the war and his ability to effectively match McCain's war hero bona fides. But despite his seeming openness to the position, he is a social conservative, which makes his selection awfully hard to see reaching fruition.
10) TOM DASCHLE- (new) Former SD Senator and Democratic leader has supported Obama since the very beginning. He's respected and has loads of experience. But if anyone ever contradicted Obama's messgae of moving on from the same old thing, it's Daschle.
LEGIT BUT LONGSHOTS
11) KEN SALAZAR- (formerly #15) Moderate CO Senator moves up because he's Hispanic, from the west and hasn't screwed up his chances yet. Still a longshot.
12) BRIAN SCHWEITZER- (new) Montana Governor is my new darkhorse. From a western state, the farmer and rancher has got executive experience and has worked all over the world, including seven years in Saudi Arabia. Still an unlikely choice, but getting less so.
13) ED RENDELL- (formerly # 5) PA Gov. may be charming, politically astute and from a swing state. But he' still Jewish, which remains tough to imagine working for a wide swath of voters in conjunction w/ an African American at the top of the ticket. Plus, he's said publicly that he wouldn't be a good number two.
14) KATHLEEN SEBILIUS- (formerly # 13) Big-time Obama supporter from a midwestern state but offers little else. Besides, as with all other female possibilities, it's hard to justify anyone other than Clinton.
15) JANET NAPOLITANO- (new) Arizona Governor may mitigate McCain's edge there and help in the west generally. But see Sebilius above.
DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH
16) MIKE BLOOMBERG- (formerly # 17) Still a Jew from New York so hard to see it, although the attrition rate of other contenders keeps his hopes alive.
17) CLAIRE MCCASKILL- (new) Missouri senator is a big Obama supporter. She might help swing the state but see Napolitano and Sebilius above. May be more helpful in the Senate anyway.
18) RICHARD GEPHARDT- (new) The former Missouri congressman, House minority leader and presidential candidate has been mentioned lately as political veteran who can help in the Show Me state. But his insider status and repeated failure as a national candidate give him the stink of a loser.
19) AL GORE- (formerly #16) Still a near impossibility, but "near" isn't the same as "total".
20) TED STRICKLAND- (formerly # 9) OH Gov. and Clinto supporter says he's not interested. Unless we hear something different, best to take him at his word.
OFF THE TOP 20 LIST COMPLETELY:
JIM WEBB- (formerly #6) He of the Shermanesque statement, the VA senator now says he will not accept. Rumors suggest he may have balked at some of the info required during the vetting process. Latent problems with women's groups probably doomed him anyway.
CHRIS DODD- (formerly #14) Always a longshot, the CT senator's preferential mortgage loan makes his selection politically unfeasible.
WESLEY CLARK- (formerly #12) Whatever the merits of this retired general's claim that being a POW and war hero doesn't inherently qualify McCain for President, the comment moved him from 'unlikely" to "untenable."
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