Why George W. Bush is the Jeff Hostetler of Presidents

So I recently got into an e-mail debate with a VERY conservative friend about whether all of Bush's recent missteps are temporary or a sign of things to come. He claimed that Bush may, despite how things look now, ultimately be able to pull a political rope-a-dope and will continue to outmaneuver those who underestimate him. He said that Bush always bounces back. I responded that Karl Rove, far more than Bush, is the one skilled at orchestrating bouncebacks. And I suggested that if Rove is indicted and has to leave the White House, Bus's chances of ineffective flailing about increase pretty dramatically. Why the blathery premable? Because, to illustrate my point to my friend, I went into an extended, mildly oversimplified, convoluted analogy that involved...wait for it...football. I thought some folks might get a kick out of it. I've included it below:

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"To use a loose analogy, Bush has always been the starting quarterback. He's the face of the team and its biggest star. He's got the quarterback/presidential look. He's decisive when he has to make a pass, even if it's a bad pass. He's got a strong arm, although his footwork is only so-so. He doesn't kick himself over interceptions or botched plays. He's very coachable. He can follow the plays his coach sends in. And as long as the defense doesn't throw too many curves at him, he can lead the team down the field with confidence.

But he's not a creator. He's not going to come up to the line of scrimmage, see that the defense has changed and be able to come up with an effective audible. He's limited to running the play that was sent in, even if it might not be effective against the defense he's facing.

Obviously, Rove is the head coach. He was W's coach in college. Then they moved to the NFL together. He comes up with the plays. He usually sticks to his QB's and his team's strengths, using his offensive line's superior size and speed to mow over the opposition. Sometimes, he throws in a trick play, some of which are brilliant misdirections. He's even been known to effectively intimidate refs and league officials from time to time.

But lately, he's been dealing with off the field issues and even though he's usually still on the sidelines during games, much of the play-calling is being done by the offensive coordinator, who may not be up to the job. The QB has started calling some audibles lately too and most of them have resulted in incompletions, fumbles or interceptions.

Plus, it's getting to about the 11th game of the season and the QB is really beaten up. He's awful sore and can't always make the passes he used to. Sometimes, he has trouble avoiding sacks he could have easily sidestepped before. The backup is a wily veteran, but he's riddled with injuries and doesn't get along with teammates, fans or sportswriters. The team would rather keep him on the bench.

A lot of his former teammates have moved on to other teams or retired. The wide receivers he used to throw to, who he knew would catch that sideline pass or the deep out, aren't playing with him anymore. His tailback has been conveterted into a free safety and hasn't adapted well. He's working with aging players, subs and free agents, many of whom were late-round draft picks. The talent just isn't what it used to be.

Plus, don't forget that this QB is used to winning. He's never really had a losing season. As a youngster, he saw the NFL up close. His dad was a QB too, who spent much of his career as a backup. Then dad managed to win a Superbowl after the starter retired, mostly because the rest of the team was pretty much made up of the same players who won with the starter. The remainder of his career was unmemorable. W, the star QB, didn't want to end up viewed that way.

At first, he didn't. Our QB has won two Superbowls and he's made the playoffs every year since he teamed up with this coach. They won two BCS bowls together when they were back in college, in part because their conference schedule was so weak.

This year, the team started off this season pretty strong, going say, 5-1. But they're 0-4 since the coach's problems have gotten really bad. And they haven't even been playing great teams. There is that constant rival that always seem to be a thorn in their side. In fact their only loss in the early season was to that rival (those Baghdad boys play rough). Yeah, that Gulf Coast team was stronger than expected, although some good scouting could have netted a victory. But recently it's been turnovers and poor play-calling that's sabotaged them. Some of the team's own players have been bad-mouthing the quarterback

They're 5-5 now. Obviously, there's still enough time to come back with a winning record and make the playoffs. But the QB's legacy and the team's prospects for the next few years are on the line. He's retiring at the end of this contract so this is his last chance for glory. Players are threatening to leave the team after the season. Some of them are even threatening to quit right now, in the middle of the season. People who used to compare him to Brady and Starr (although never to Montana, Favre or Elway) are starting to mention him in the same breath as Trent Dilfer or even Jeff Hostetler (although never, ever to Doug Williams).

He COULD come back, it's true. But it's not like he's got any impressive rookies to speak of. None of the subs have stepped up. There aren't any free agents available. And this QB's never been known for his scrambling ability or, as mentioned before, his audible skills. He's never been great at reading defenses. He likes to just plow ahead, ignoring the defense completely. It's worked in the past, because he usually knows how to use the talent aroud him. He likes the first 15 plays (okay, let's make that the first 150) laid out for him.

But unless the coach throws a hail mary of his own, there's a pretty good chance that because of his off field issues, he'll have to leave the team for the rest of the season, and maybe for good.

So what does that mean? What are the likely scenarios?

1) 6-0 for the rest of the season, 11-5 over all and another Super Bowl and a place as a legend in NFL history. Conceivable, especially if the coach makes a full recovery from his off-field issues, but not likely.

2) 0-6 for the remainder, 5-11 overall and a fall from grace of stunning proportions? Possible but there's still enough talent to win a few games and the remainder of the schedule has got to be easier than the last few games.

3) More likely is 2-4. In a weak division (the political NFC North), he'll stay in the playoff hunt longer than he has any right to but those last few weeks will be painful as he limps to season's end with the knowledge that he's not getting to the promised land. 7-9 and lots of coulda, woulda, shoulda articles in the The Sporting News and SI.

Only after the season and in the years that follow, will it become apparent that the QB stumbled into the perfect situation, was given chances others wouldn't have gotten because people remembered his dad's pro days, because he was pretty good up close with fans, and most of all, because he trusted his coach without reservation. As time passes, it will become clear that without that coach, the QB probably would have made a Division I program but likely wouldn't have ever been a starter there. He would have gotten his degree, joined Dad's firm as an overpaid executive and led a charmed, if uneventful life.

But he did meet that coach. And even though Coach Rove was generally considered to be dirty and thought to have cheated and lied about other coaches and players, he knew how to call a play and he knew how to lead a team. And that coach led his QB to the promised land... twice. But now the coach is on the ropes, which means the QB is on his own for the first time in years. We'll see, but I suspect that without Coach Rove, this quarterback is going to be revealed as a scrub."

-Andirant

VERONICA MARS (10/5/05 episode)

I’ll admit that I was a little underwhelmed by the big season premiere. It was still clever and snarky but there was just too much going on. Plus, I didn’t buy the whiplash Logan/Duncan love switch. It made Veronica seem too needy- like she had to be with someone, regardless of whether it was believable.

The second episode was much stronger. The “Logan sinks back into his bad old ways” plotline looks promising. That Kendall Casablancas affair is going to get ugly (I hope). Nice to see Wallace getting a sniff of some play, even if the girl looks like trouble. Nice also to see Kristin Datillo getting a little work. The Whedon-Buffy-Angel connections seem to even have rivulets that finger out to guest-starring roles. And any epsiode that ends to the strains of a Pixies tune deserves The Rant's respect.

THE WEST WING (10/9/05 episode)

The ratings suggest that few others do, but I’m getting a kick out the revitalized show, now that Jimmy Smits vs. Alan Alda has taken center stage. It’s still hard for me to imagine the writers will ultimately go with any outcome other than a Matt Santos administration but getting there sure has been fun so far.

NUMB3RS (in general)

Diane Farr has been solid as the Sabrina Lloyd replacement (mourning period slowly fading) but how much more interesting would it have been if last season's guest star, Sarah Wayne Callies, had stuck around the office as Don’s (Rob Morrow) ex. His character seems pretty combustible as it is. Imagine the stakes if he was dealing with harrowing cases, protecting his genius little brother and navigating the pitfalls of working with his former love. Oh well, Numb3rs’ loss is Prison Break’s gain.

Top 10 TV Shows- 2004

Best TV -2004

1) The Wire- This show will not cater to you. You have to come to it. You have to invest some time and energy and brainpower and focus to get the most out of the best show on television. But the rewards are well worth it. Epic in scope, with over thirty major characters, plotlines that crisscross each other and head off in directions unmapped, The Wire is nothing if not ambitious. Chronicling the complicated world of Baltimore cops, drug dealers and politicos, it gets deep under the leprous skin of a city seemingly leeching with decay and corruption. We are immersed in multiple universes, spending time with the special police task force trying to infiltrate a ruthless drug ring, the drug dealers themselves, and the local politicians who are trying to work every possible angle.

Good people do terrible things, terrible people have moments of grace and fate lays its heavy hand down on all of them the same. In the world of The Wire, like the real world, no one is perfect and human frailty rules the day. But flaws can be overcome, if only temporarily and decency still has a place at the table.

This show is not safe. Major characters are killed off and whole plotlines can take sudden, radical turns. The Wire is rich with detail and certainty of purpose and it rewards the patient viewer with moments of truth so crystal clear, they can sometime be hard to face. And all the while, the people of this Baltimore continue their mighty struggles, though few seemingly ever escape the city’s inexorable pull back to the center, back to the Pit.

2) The Daily Show with Jon Stewart- I don’t think I would have made it through the campaign season this year without Jon Stewart. His sarcastic, seemingly cynical (but secretly hopeful) rants against all things politically hypocritical, was a salve for my wounded civic soul. And this from a comedy, which he constantly reminds us is a “fake news” show. It’s cliché by now to point out that his fake news is sometimes more probing and incisive than much of today’s real television news. In addition, the in-the-field- correspondent pieces are often perfect little snippets of semi-improvised street theater. When Stephen Colbert went to the Democratic Convention and put together a forum for all the wronged demographic representatives (whom he proceeded to directly address by their most basic characteristics- black dude, tree-hugger, Jewish guy, gay chick, etc.) to discuss their gripes, well I’ll just say, that was some funny stuff.

3) Scrubs- There aren’t very many traditional sitcoms on my list, but this fresh, offbeat treasure packs enough laughs in its 22 minutes to make up for a dozen other crappy so-called comedies. Verbal humor, slapstick, surreal flights of fancy, extended non-sequiturial riffs- Scrubs has it all. This show takes on everything from life and death, to race and class, to sex to love, to pretty girly names, to janitorial revenge plots with the same brio and enthusiasm. And just when you think you’ve got a bead on what’s happening, the show hits you with moments of such real, heartfelt emotion that you fear you’ll need a few minutes to regroup and take on the funny again. Brendan Fraser’s guest starring episode last spring had the single most stunning take-your-breath-away moment on TV this year.

4) The Amazing Race (Seasons 5 & 6)- Hooray! A reality show that doesn’t make you feel dirty. My only shame comes from missing the first four installments of the best reality program on television. There is something oddly riveting about watching complete strangers melt down (or rise to the occasion) as they dash around the world in a non-stop, sleep deprived, physically and intellectually draining race for a million dollars. Was there anything more impressive on TV this year than watching little person Charla overcome seemingly insurmountable obstacles (and the most annoying, self-pitying teammate/cousin in the world) as she proved that you don’t have win the race to win over the American viewing public?

5) Lost- 48 survivors of a plane crash no one should have survived? Polar bears on a tropical island? Wheel-chair bound men rising up and walking? Crazy French chicks? Unknown monsters that eat pilots for lunch? What the hell is happening on this island? I have my own theories, as does everybody else who watches this jigsaw puzzle of a show. Of course, I’m probably wrong. And of course, none of the narrative intrigue would work if the mysteries surrounding the characters weren’t as captivating as the mystery of the island. I don’t know where this show is headed but I do know that I’m following close behind.

6) The Sopranos- Not that this show has ever had a truly bad season, but let’s just say that season 4 was not up to Sopranos snuff. That’s why it was great to see such a smooth return to form in Season 5. So much going on, so little space. Whether watching Carmela’s slow drift back to the easy comfort of Tony’s world or FBI informant Adriana’s descent into a stress-induced shell of her former self, this was the season where the ladies really got to shine. Too bad it all ended so badly for one while the prognosis doesn’t look good for the other. I can’t wait to see how these people, living in the rank sweat of an enseamed bed, stewed in corruption, live out their final, Shakespearean (yes, the allusions are appropriate) season.

7) Entourage- The last of HBO’s three shows in the top seven. How can a show be this inside Hollywood AND completely accessible? Maybe because it focuses as much on friendship and loyalty as on movie star minutiae. Plus it’s just damn funny.

8) The Office- The second (and final) season, along with the two-hour special set three years later, was an amazing combination of side-splittingly funny and so-painful-you-have-to-cover-your-eyes moments. Ricky Gervais’s desperate to be loved but impossible to like boss felt so real, you could only pray it wasn’t based on a real person.

9) Joe Schmo 2- This overlooked Spike TV gem (and its precursor) was endlessly inventive. A reality show and a comedic riff on reality shows (two contestants don’t realize everyone else on a Bachelor-type dating show is an actor) tweaked all the conventions of reality TV while maintaining genuine suspense about the final outcome. Plus, Montecore the falcon was the king of the pratfall.

10) TIE
The Apprentice- The penny’s a little worn in round two, but the first go-round was a hoot. The competitions and back-biting were great but the real fun came from Trump’s endless supply of self-promoting, self-aggrandizing comments- “I built this building for 400 million dollars and it has the best views and the most expensive rent in all of Manhattan…”

Touching Evil- A twelve episode revelation on USA, Jeffrey Donovan plays a detective who specializes in hunting serial killers. But upon his return to work after a leave of absence to recover from a gunshot wound to the head, his behavior makes his co-workers (and even him) question his instincts and stability. Moody and brooding, with a dark sense of humor, this was a pleasant, and totally unexpected, surprise.

Top Ten extra (Old show)

The Prisoner- Okay, so this show actually originally aired in 1967, but I only caught it this year on BBC America. Its one season is a crazy psychedelic roller-coaster about a British secret agent imprisoned at a remote island village for mysterious reasons. I didn’t always understand it, but I was always fascinated.

The Next Five (actually, seven) Best

11) Alias- The third season meandered a little (the promising Sydney-Vaughn-Lauren twisted love triangle turned simplistic around mid-season) but the action was still great, the twists still surprised and Jennifer Garner and Victor Garber continue to shine as they deepen the most compelling father/daughter relationship on television.

12) TIE
Jack & Bobby/Veronica Mars- Both shows are brand new so it’s a little premature to rave too much but…

The conceit of Jack & Bobby, looking back on a future president’s youth, has been surprisingly effective. Plus the show is sustained by two great performances- Christine Lahti’s brittle, brilliant professor and Matt Long as her too-wise-for-his-years elder son.

As to Veronica Mars, it’s the closest thing to Buffy I’ve got these days, with spunky, independent grrrl power poster child Veronica (Kristen Bell) snarkily solving crimes and sorting out her own high-school demons as she tries to determine who murdered her best friend.

13) 24 – A solid rebound from a lame second season. A lot happened: Jack has to chop off his partner’s arm to save L.A., a whole hotel full of people died of an engineered virus and quiet Michelle emerged as a steel-willed heroine. Bring on season 4. And keep it dark please.

14) TIE
Curb Your Enthusiasm/ Da Ali G Show- Both shows are so awkward and painful, I sometimes forgot to laugh because of all the cringing. If Larry David or Ali G ever stopped by The Office, the building might implode from generalized discomfort.

15) Arrested Development- Sometimes there’s almost too much funny stuff going on. It’s like the writers are afraid the show is about to be cancelled so they throw every gag possible into each episode. Non-stop, chuckly weirdness.

Honorable mention (in order of preference)

Nip/Tuck- I didn’t watch this show the first season on principle. But once I checked it out, I was hooked by the parade of endless, amoral bed-hopping and double-dealing.

Without a Trace- The best TV procedural going, partly because it’s not afraid to go dark (they don’t save everyone) and partly because we actually get to know the characters.

Joey – It’s no Friends and there’s nothing edgy about this show but Matt LeBlanc’s facial expressions and line readings are good for a half dozen belly laughs each week.

America’s Next Top Model- Tyra means well but this train wreck (in a good way) reinforces every model stereotype. Destroyed self-images have never been so much fun.

Best Week Ever- Hit and miss but when it hits, it packs a comedy punch.

Kevin Hill- Teeters on the edge of cliché but manages to stay charming & avoid cloying.

The Assistant- Who wants to be Andy Dick’s Next Top Assistant? Absurd and hilarious.

Road Rules X-treme- Was I this dysfunctional at 19? Did others get amusement from it?

The West Wing- Jimmy Smits + staff infighting= way better than last year.

Extreme Makeover: Home Edition- More reality TV that actually makes you feel good.

My Big, Fat Obnoxious Fiancé- Reality TV that makes you feel bad for laughing so hard at something so wrong.

-andirant


*I'd like to extend a special thanks to the good people at Tivo, for making all this viewage possible.

Salutations, dullards & rubes and THE REASON (first official blog posting)

So here it is. My very first blog. I've seen them. I've read them on occasion. I understand that a few people who write them even got political party convention access. I'm a little intimidated to keep typing, considering all the attendant, blog-related pressure. But I will press on.

I'm not sure yet what the ultimate incarnation of this weblog will be. I suspect that it will have a few rants about American politics and policy. I have the occasional opinion. I might even try to offer a few constructive suggestions for how to change the troubling, increasingly polarized cultural dynamic in this country. There may be a movie review or two. Maybe a little venting about issues in my life that I don't care to verbalize with an actual human-type person. Perhaps even a little anonymous raging against the dying of the light. After all, this blog isn't called "andirant" for no reason.

I'll be general to start- sort of a dip-my-toe-in-the-pool post to get in the swing of things. I live in California, bastion of liberalism, the bluest blue state not on the Eastern Seaboard and I like it here. I feel comfortable here. Mostly.

You see, I'm a transplant. And a transplant from the South, no less. And if there's anything about my adopted home state that I find irritating of late, it's the pervasive mentality that all those red state people who voted for Bush are either stupid or just "don't get it." Now I voted for Kerry. Not so much out of enthusiasm for the guy but (like so many others) because of an almost tangible distate for the incumbent.

But I know a lot of people who voted for that incumbent. And almost none of them are stupid. And with few exceptions, they "get" it. Let me clarify . They "get" the concept that our country faces incredible challenges at home and abroad. They get that our our national conversation has turned into a shouting match. They get that the things that unite as a people are fast being overwhelmed by the things that divide us. They are aware that the world is being re-made and that not everyone likes the new look.

What they don't "get" is that their entire worldview is wrong, that everything they believe is unworthy of anything but contempt and that their support for President Bush will lead to the destruction of the America we know and love. They don't "get" that.

Many of my more liberal friends and associates subscribe to the notion that the above description of President Bush's supporters is pretty much spot-on. They either shake their heads with confusion or cluck sympathetically at the dullards and rubes who handed President Bush another four years.

The arrogant assumption on the left that the people who supported President Bush this time around were either suckered, psycho or sinister has permeated the collective consciousness. Thus, the e-mails circulating that have a map which refers to most of the US as "Jesus Land" or the e-mail that includes a (false) study indicating that the average IQ in blue-voting states is substantially higher than in red ones.

When you boil it down to the most basic level, this kind of highbrow, self-deluding name-calling of the opposition is the adult equivalent of one kid losing a race at recess and saying "Well, you may have won the race, but I'm in Honors Math and you're not, Dumbhead."

Whatever, Math Boy. You wanted to win the race. You trained hard for it. You could almost taste victory. And you lost. Talking about your math class doesn't change the fact that you lost. And you're not fooling anyone, except maybe yourself. Maybe you should take a look at why you lost and focus on improving your technique for the next race. Telling the winner and everyone who cheered him on that they're Dumbheads isn't winning you any friends and it's distracting from the job at hand- winning the next race, winning races consistently, leaving that other kid in the dust.

Clunky, extended metaphors aside, I think my point is clear. Senator Kerry did not lose the race because President Bush's supporters were lemmings who jumped off a political cliff. Kerry lost because (well, there were a bunch of reasons, but for the purposes of this discussion) the Republicans, and more generally, the conservative movement, found a way to connect with voters, to convince them that they shared those voters' values and understood their concerns, more than the Democratic Party did.

That's it. That's the reason. Not because the Democrats didn't effectively get their message out. Or because Republicans used dirty tricks or fear tactics. Those things may all be true but they're not THE REASON. The Republican party won a pretty convincing win this time around and that kind of broad-based victory at local, state and national levels is not the result of strategic errors or dirty tricks. It is the result of a fundamental inability to connect with huge segments of the American voting public.

Now what to do about that? Well, this first post is getting a little long, so I'll have to hold off on that one for now (I swear I'm not wussing out- I just have other things to do right now). Frankly, I'm not sure I have any answers, but I know that to come up with good answers you have to at least be asking the right questions.

More questions to come.

-andirant