Why George W. Bush is the Jeff Hostetler of Presidents

So I recently got into an e-mail debate with a VERY conservative friend about whether all of Bush's recent missteps are temporary or a sign of things to come. He claimed that Bush may, despite how things look now, ultimately be able to pull a political rope-a-dope and will continue to outmaneuver those who underestimate him. He said that Bush always bounces back. I responded that Karl Rove, far more than Bush, is the one skilled at orchestrating bouncebacks. And I suggested that if Rove is indicted and has to leave the White House, Bus's chances of ineffective flailing about increase pretty dramatically. Why the blathery premable? Because, to illustrate my point to my friend, I went into an extended, mildly oversimplified, convoluted analogy that involved...wait for it...football. I thought some folks might get a kick out of it. I've included it below:

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"To use a loose analogy, Bush has always been the starting quarterback. He's the face of the team and its biggest star. He's got the quarterback/presidential look. He's decisive when he has to make a pass, even if it's a bad pass. He's got a strong arm, although his footwork is only so-so. He doesn't kick himself over interceptions or botched plays. He's very coachable. He can follow the plays his coach sends in. And as long as the defense doesn't throw too many curves at him, he can lead the team down the field with confidence.

But he's not a creator. He's not going to come up to the line of scrimmage, see that the defense has changed and be able to come up with an effective audible. He's limited to running the play that was sent in, even if it might not be effective against the defense he's facing.

Obviously, Rove is the head coach. He was W's coach in college. Then they moved to the NFL together. He comes up with the plays. He usually sticks to his QB's and his team's strengths, using his offensive line's superior size and speed to mow over the opposition. Sometimes, he throws in a trick play, some of which are brilliant misdirections. He's even been known to effectively intimidate refs and league officials from time to time.

But lately, he's been dealing with off the field issues and even though he's usually still on the sidelines during games, much of the play-calling is being done by the offensive coordinator, who may not be up to the job. The QB has started calling some audibles lately too and most of them have resulted in incompletions, fumbles or interceptions.

Plus, it's getting to about the 11th game of the season and the QB is really beaten up. He's awful sore and can't always make the passes he used to. Sometimes, he has trouble avoiding sacks he could have easily sidestepped before. The backup is a wily veteran, but he's riddled with injuries and doesn't get along with teammates, fans or sportswriters. The team would rather keep him on the bench.

A lot of his former teammates have moved on to other teams or retired. The wide receivers he used to throw to, who he knew would catch that sideline pass or the deep out, aren't playing with him anymore. His tailback has been conveterted into a free safety and hasn't adapted well. He's working with aging players, subs and free agents, many of whom were late-round draft picks. The talent just isn't what it used to be.

Plus, don't forget that this QB is used to winning. He's never really had a losing season. As a youngster, he saw the NFL up close. His dad was a QB too, who spent much of his career as a backup. Then dad managed to win a Superbowl after the starter retired, mostly because the rest of the team was pretty much made up of the same players who won with the starter. The remainder of his career was unmemorable. W, the star QB, didn't want to end up viewed that way.

At first, he didn't. Our QB has won two Superbowls and he's made the playoffs every year since he teamed up with this coach. They won two BCS bowls together when they were back in college, in part because their conference schedule was so weak.

This year, the team started off this season pretty strong, going say, 5-1. But they're 0-4 since the coach's problems have gotten really bad. And they haven't even been playing great teams. There is that constant rival that always seem to be a thorn in their side. In fact their only loss in the early season was to that rival (those Baghdad boys play rough). Yeah, that Gulf Coast team was stronger than expected, although some good scouting could have netted a victory. But recently it's been turnovers and poor play-calling that's sabotaged them. Some of the team's own players have been bad-mouthing the quarterback

They're 5-5 now. Obviously, there's still enough time to come back with a winning record and make the playoffs. But the QB's legacy and the team's prospects for the next few years are on the line. He's retiring at the end of this contract so this is his last chance for glory. Players are threatening to leave the team after the season. Some of them are even threatening to quit right now, in the middle of the season. People who used to compare him to Brady and Starr (although never to Montana, Favre or Elway) are starting to mention him in the same breath as Trent Dilfer or even Jeff Hostetler (although never, ever to Doug Williams).

He COULD come back, it's true. But it's not like he's got any impressive rookies to speak of. None of the subs have stepped up. There aren't any free agents available. And this QB's never been known for his scrambling ability or, as mentioned before, his audible skills. He's never been great at reading defenses. He likes to just plow ahead, ignoring the defense completely. It's worked in the past, because he usually knows how to use the talent aroud him. He likes the first 15 plays (okay, let's make that the first 150) laid out for him.

But unless the coach throws a hail mary of his own, there's a pretty good chance that because of his off field issues, he'll have to leave the team for the rest of the season, and maybe for good.

So what does that mean? What are the likely scenarios?

1) 6-0 for the rest of the season, 11-5 over all and another Super Bowl and a place as a legend in NFL history. Conceivable, especially if the coach makes a full recovery from his off-field issues, but not likely.

2) 0-6 for the remainder, 5-11 overall and a fall from grace of stunning proportions? Possible but there's still enough talent to win a few games and the remainder of the schedule has got to be easier than the last few games.

3) More likely is 2-4. In a weak division (the political NFC North), he'll stay in the playoff hunt longer than he has any right to but those last few weeks will be painful as he limps to season's end with the knowledge that he's not getting to the promised land. 7-9 and lots of coulda, woulda, shoulda articles in the The Sporting News and SI.

Only after the season and in the years that follow, will it become apparent that the QB stumbled into the perfect situation, was given chances others wouldn't have gotten because people remembered his dad's pro days, because he was pretty good up close with fans, and most of all, because he trusted his coach without reservation. As time passes, it will become clear that without that coach, the QB probably would have made a Division I program but likely wouldn't have ever been a starter there. He would have gotten his degree, joined Dad's firm as an overpaid executive and led a charmed, if uneventful life.

But he did meet that coach. And even though Coach Rove was generally considered to be dirty and thought to have cheated and lied about other coaches and players, he knew how to call a play and he knew how to lead a team. And that coach led his QB to the promised land... twice. But now the coach is on the ropes, which means the QB is on his own for the first time in years. We'll see, but I suspect that without Coach Rove, this quarterback is going to be revealed as a scrub."

-Andirant

VERONICA MARS (10/5/05 episode)

I’ll admit that I was a little underwhelmed by the big season premiere. It was still clever and snarky but there was just too much going on. Plus, I didn’t buy the whiplash Logan/Duncan love switch. It made Veronica seem too needy- like she had to be with someone, regardless of whether it was believable.

The second episode was much stronger. The “Logan sinks back into his bad old ways” plotline looks promising. That Kendall Casablancas affair is going to get ugly (I hope). Nice to see Wallace getting a sniff of some play, even if the girl looks like trouble. Nice also to see Kristin Datillo getting a little work. The Whedon-Buffy-Angel connections seem to even have rivulets that finger out to guest-starring roles. And any epsiode that ends to the strains of a Pixies tune deserves The Rant's respect.

THE WEST WING (10/9/05 episode)

The ratings suggest that few others do, but I’m getting a kick out the revitalized show, now that Jimmy Smits vs. Alan Alda has taken center stage. It’s still hard for me to imagine the writers will ultimately go with any outcome other than a Matt Santos administration but getting there sure has been fun so far.

NUMB3RS (in general)

Diane Farr has been solid as the Sabrina Lloyd replacement (mourning period slowly fading) but how much more interesting would it have been if last season's guest star, Sarah Wayne Callies, had stuck around the office as Don’s (Rob Morrow) ex. His character seems pretty combustible as it is. Imagine the stakes if he was dealing with harrowing cases, protecting his genius little brother and navigating the pitfalls of working with his former love. Oh well, Numb3rs’ loss is Prison Break’s gain.